L5207-2-00

l5207-2-00

因为市长在央视谈机器换人，所以最近“东莞机器换人”成为财经热词。一位在媒体工作的外地朋友问我，机器人入侵，东莞是不是又热闹起来了，有没有失业工人上街表达诉求？

温情脉脉的技术变革引发了伦理上的焦虑。客观地说，这种反应并不令人意外，技术本身就具有两面性。它在扩展人类生存空间的同时，也可能给人类带来新的挑战。

那么，东莞正在力推的机器换人是否真的会导致技术性失业？如果会，我们该如何看待技术性失业问题？

回答这些问题，要回到东莞缺工这个前提。机器换人听上去很时髦，但对企业家来说，却是要付出真金白银的代价。以制鞋业为例，原来普通机器一台只要一两千元，由于找不到工人，不得已企业需要采用自动化程度更高的机器，而新机器售价则要上万元。对于大多数企业来说，显然会首选人工，而不是机器。从投资风险的角度来说，工人工资是以月为单位的分期付款，置换新机器则是一次性巨额投入。很显然，前者的风险要小很多。因此，“机器吃掉人工岗位”的进程，会比外界想象的要稳健和谨慎得多。

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